• 2 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • Robots are cool and all, but considering our (in a larger sense) children is literally the future of our civilization. The next generation is why it’s important to fix our mistakes, to leave things better than we found them, to open new opportunities and greater potential. Automation can enable that but is not a goal in itself, or is a short term goal for personal gain.

    So yes, I’ll agree that we seem to have passed the healthy carrying capacity of the planet and should fix that. However I’ll strongly disagree that it would be a good thing to drop below the sustainability of current society, innovation, science, and I’ll strongly disagree it’s desirable to drop population fast enough to destabilize societies, economies, or to cause human suffering. That’s what we my be headed for. A few tweaks now, might help population level off and gradually decline without causing suffering, and hopefully level off at a healthy total.

    Let’s fix our mistakes while still setting the next generation up for success, not give in to misery and root for disaster

    Edit: if you read the Wikipedia article on degrowth, there’s surprisingly little focus on reducing population and it really isn’t a goal, although an important tool. Pretty much all of the precepts contradict sudden population declines or the aftereffects of that


  • Degrowth is coming. Birth rate is below replacement in essentially all developed countries and is steeply dropping in less developed ones as well. We’re on track for population to level off and start dropping in only a few decades, as current larger generations die off.

    We just need to hope that “natural” depopulation isn’t too late for addressing climate change.

    But I’d argue it’s likely to drop too steeply, further destabilizing societies. Think of it like climate change in the 1970’s: we can fix it now with minimal impact, or we could wait until it’s a crisis. We need to take steps now to make having more children a more attractive choice



  • This is the downside of USB-C: a single connector used by many different capability ports and cables. On another thread I was complaining that laptops/computers still have too few USB-C ports and too many USB-A that I want to migrate away from. Why shouldn’t I be able to have all small, symmetrical connectors, like I have for the last decade with Lightning?

    Some of the answers were that you can’t support the power and bandwidth for that many and there is no easy way to distinguish either ports or cables that do from those that don’t. That’s a pretty bad excuse when standardized marking could take care of that so easily. Even with USB-A there is a convention with color of the port - it would be trivial to do the same





  • It already doesn’t happen.

    • while there have been fires and they do burn hot and self oxidize, it’s more rare than for ICE cars and usually caused by physical damage.
    • my EV battery is warranted for 8 years, 100k miles, and some are higher
    • my Tesla battery could be replaced for $15k, and it’s been decreasing over time, so half what you fear
    • batteries usually don’t just die: end of life is usually set at 70% health, meaning you can keep using it with reduced range

    Swappable batteries can’t be a stop gap because it would require a huge infrastructure buildout over many years that would become a lost investment, versus technology that’s already here and improving every year. Starting from scratch with swap stations, vehicle design, industry standards, vs hundreds of thousands of charging stations already deployed.

    If you think chargers aren’t available enough or expanding enough, consider that they’re known technology, relatively cheap, installable by any electrician, using a national power infrastructure that already exists. Installing a level 2 charger at my house was equivalent to a new stove circuit. I mean I agree we need to speed up the buildout, but think how cheap and easy these are compared to developing an entire new infrastructure from scratch. How simple a ”plug” is compared to a robot that can handle a one ton battery. How long it took to standardize an effing plug, compared to standardizing entire battery packs. How can anyone think this would go faster?




  • So now we’re tacking on government regulation and certifications, an independent reaction regime? On top of building out a global infrastructure carrying around batteries that each way a ton, supporting robotics to manipulate those batteries, getting everyone to agree to use the same batteries, etc? Compared to “plug it in wherever you are”?

    Battery swapping is a cool idea and there may be equipment that needs it, but it would just make personal vehicles more complicated and expensive with little gain