• 0 Posts
  • 4 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 12th, 2023

help-circle

  • I don’t know much about the Hyperloop - I was never interested in it, and it never seemed like a real project, some kind of Musk BS probably, but I don’t know enough to debate it. Full Autonomous driving is definitely also a very ambitious project. I do think it is in principle feasible, and has great potential, but also serious possible obstacles. I think it’s worth pursuing to figure it out. I would say that selling it to the mass market is premature at this point, and has been overhyped by Musk a lot. Also don’t know anything about the Human/Robot AI program, that also sounds like Musk BS, so I don’t really follow it.

    I do think Musk is a narcissist, I don’t think he is an idiot. I don’t think calling him a con-man is really justified. I also don’t think he is a genius, more like someone with decent amount of technical competence who often unreasonably clings to slightly insane visions and an ability to assemble talented people and push them to try to execute on those visions and ideas, which sometimes leads to legitimate breakthroughs, for example in case of SpaceX.

    I would never take Musk’s predictions, economic or technological at face value, he is clearly always talking far ahead of anything currently happening, an his predictions are notoriously unreliable and wildly optimistic. I don’t think that takes away much from the actual achievements of both Tesla and especially SpaceX however.

    I also personally would never buy a Tesla, for a variety of reasons - I actually have a lot of disagreements with the Tesla philosophy, and will probably never own a self-driving car either, but whatever.


  • If a NASA program had as many failures as SpaceX has, it would be closed down.

    94 successful Falcon 9 launches this year so far (0 failures) - 90% with reused boosters, with a single booster being flown for the 19th time yesterday - no launch system has ever come close to these kinds of numbers before.

    If by “many failures” you are referring to Starship, those are literally test articles/pathfinders/prototypes tested to destruction. It’s a different development approach than NASA’s, so I am not sure how the comparison is applicable. It took many failed booster landings early in the Falcon program to perfect the droneship landing, and look where it is now.

    Starship is a very ambitious program, really pushing the boundaries of our technological capability and challenging a lot of existing conventions. Even Elon admits success is far from certain, but declaring it doomed based on the test flight results so far is really premature.