So, around 1947. Took about 14 years to get to being able to put into chips. So another decade and a half?
Edit: and another 15 to 25 years after that for it to be in consumer households?
From the byline:
Quantum tech is at its transistor moment—promising, real, and powerful, but still years of hard work away from changing the world
So pretty much, yeah.
I don’t think it will ever reach consumer households, since it requires extremely complex and expensive materials, tools and physical conditions. Unless a major breakthrough occurs but highly unlikely.
Also we don’t really have a use for them, at least to regular users. They won’t replace classical computers.
But you can already access some QCs online. IBM has a paid remote API for instance.
I can currently only see them used as accelerators of some type right now. Could see them used potentially for GPUs, but generally I suspect some form of compute first. GenAI anyone? SkyNET? But that is only if they can be made portable for laptops or phones which is still a major issue still needing to be addressed.
I don’t expect them to replace traditional chips in my lifetime if ever.
Could see them used potentially for GPU
Like used as GPUs or like GPUs. The latter, certainly. The former not as much. They aren’t a replacement for current tech they accelerate completely different things (and they really do nothing currently that your average consumer would be interested in anyway).
Yes they will probably never replace them because they’re actually slower than classical computers in doing simple calculations.
Quantum ML is actively being researched. However I am not informed at all about the advancement in this field specifically.
But the good news is that it doesn’t need to be portable, we can use them just as we do right now with remote access!
So the thing with useful quantum computers is that if they ever do make it actually work and manage to scale it up, the first thing they will do is render most modern encryption obsolete over night. My guess is that Bluffdale has a mountain of encrypted data they’d start cracking immediately.
My cynicism can’t allow me to think that we’d hear about it until years after that backlog is cleared and the NSA (and now by extension Israel and Russia) have backdoored any network of interested 10 times over.
The far more likely scenario is that this like stable/cold-ish Fusion, practical graphene, CRiSPER miracle cures are still way more theory than driveable cars at this point and for next several years at least. These folks just want more money and have to keep claiming they are close to get it.
https://signal.org/blog/pqxdh/
Many companies already have transitioned to mathematically proven quantum resistant encryption.
Sure, some old stuff will be vulnerable, but we’ve known the risk for a while and have already started preparation.
The intellectual elite always dangling that carrot (of hope) from a stick (of almost there).
science is being slopified
Any day now!
Any day now, for the past 30 years or so.
Well? We’re waiting!
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Bullshit.
To compare how far each platform has advanced across computing, simulation, networking, and sensing, the researchers used large language AI models such as ChatGPT and Gemini to estimate technology-readiness levels (TRL).
They asked ChatGPT? That’s the paper?
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