I want to see everyone hop on the IPOs and ride them all the way down to the floor!
Fuck AI
If I wasn’t convinced the entire financial system was fraudulent I would be shorting the fuck out of all of them
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Especially since Nvidia has reached the “too big to fail” level; guess who’s gonna pay again for the upcoming crisis?
Source? Not doubting you, just would like to know the criteria.
We’ll burn more and more coal to power air conditioners to deal with unbearable global warming until that’s no longer possible.
The financial markets are the same. No reasonable person believes any of this is sane or sustainable. But what happens when the music stops? Very few chairs.
‘At some point you’ve got to make money’
Hey hey hey, now, that’s loser talk. Here, c’mon, let’s snort a ton of coke.
That sounds like something The Wolf of Wall Street would say
Don’t you worry about Wall Street, let ME worry about blank!
Blank? BLANK??! You’re not looking at the big picture!
The arc of technology progress since the crash in the early 2000s has been pump and dump scams perpetrated on the entire market.
I think those IPOs are meant to bring in enough money to give the founders and managers golden parachutes before the whole system folds.
They don’t make any money - on the contrary - and they won’t miraculously start making it just because the IPO happened.
Here’s the problem… He says AI was adopted beyond his expectations. Great.
But if somebody is using it at the current price point of super cheap or free, are they going to keep using it when it gets expensive?
You can make a basic chatbot run on a desktop PC, but nobody wants to pay for that. Once you get into things with useful generation and large context windows, or things like video generation, suddenly you need one or more $10,000+ pieces of hardware to run it. So the $10 a month you charge the user is basically an introductory price that doesn’t cover your hardware fees let alone the software engineers to build your AI.
Eventually, the bill comes due. Eventually, you have to look at your customers and how much machine time they use each month and how much your r&d costs and figure out what the actual cost to the customer has to be. And then the customer rethinks how useful the AI is or isn’t.
People will pay $10 a month for chat GPT to write their emails. Will they pay $100 a month?
What about the company that replaced all their software developers with AI. Suddenly the AI cost as much or more as the software developers. Only now the developers who understood the code base work for other companies.
There will be a fun correction when this happens.
People will pay $10 a month for chat GPT to write their emails.
They won’t even pay that in many cases but instead rely on the free offerings. Expect those to go away altogether, to be heavily hamstring, or to become absolutely riddled with advertisements.
Once you get into things with useful generation and large context windows, or things like video generation, suddenly you need one or more $10,000+ pieces of hardware to run it.
A Blackwell server with 72 GPUs costs about $3 million, plus requires 130 kW of power (about 3 residential homes’ max rated power through a residential 200A circuit box, for about $600-$1000/day in electricity cost).
You’re gonna need to sell a lot of $20/month subscriptions to get that paid for, assuming that the server is good for 5 years. If it’s only good for 3 years, the economics are basically impossible.
… assuming that the server is good for 5 years. If it’s only good for 3 years, the economics are basically impossible.
And surely the big AI companies wouldn’t decide that hardware rated for ~3 years should be amortized over 5-6 years in order to massively inflate their value on paper.
I’m sure Bernie Madoff’s fund had an ‘accounting puzzle’ too.
I love how the publications call it a ‘puzzle’ rather than what it so obviously is- a bunch of people throwing $billions at tech they don’t understand which has no serious road to profitability anytime soon.
If it’s only good for 3 years, the economics are basically impossible.
Also consider that as models improve, the newer frontier models that are doing actual useful work require significantly more compute and RAM than basic chat bots…
ERROR: Capitalism has no idea how to deal with this situation.
I’m actually kinda fascinated with how this will shake out. This isn’t like one or two companies making a bet. The entire S&P500 is pushing Ai.
Well, here’s hoping a few investors do a flip before they hit the pavement.
That’s not nice. Think of the people who clean that pavement.
ERROR: Capitalism has no idea how to deal with this situation.
Actually it does. Bad decisions can be made only until money runs out
Wat? Capitalism knows exactly how to deal with this situation. People who still have faith in the companies will keep loaning them money or buying their stock or investing in them in other ways, and people who don’t have that faith will stop doing those things. Eventually each company will either succeed or run out of believers and die. It’s a very common scenario.
edit: answering the people who mentioned bailouts and government loans, as if to invalidate what I’m saying here.
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Bailouts are infrequent special cases where governments intercede when there’s fear that corporate failures might cause widespread unemployment or other economic consequences. The entire AI industry isn’t even in that leage - it currently employs around 25-30,000 people. The largest one (OpenAI) only has about 8000. The largest of them could fail without disrupting their industry. This is nothing like a situation that would spur an industry-wide bailout.
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Same goes for large government loans or loan guarantees. These aren’t handed out like candy whenever anyone asks. The scale of the consequences from company failures simply wouldn’t justify it.
The overwhelmingly likely scenario if AI companies fail is mergers and acquisitions. There’s even a class of investors known as “corporate raiders” who specialize in buying desperate companies and selling off the assets. None of this is new, it’s normal business activity that happens all the time, just part of the ecosystem. Believing AI companies are bulletproof because the government will simply hand them money simply isn’t supported by history. For a counterexample read up on the dotcom bubble of the late 90s, when tens of thousands of web startups went under without getting bailed out.
Are you seriously suggesting companies live and die by the free market?? Those poor failing companies need taxpayer bailouts.
Yeah, that would be true if there never was a public bailout, or a cheap government loan.
One problem with capitalism is that everything is for sale, including the government. The AI industry is intentionally positioning themselves as “too big to fail” so that they can guarantee a government bailout. As for the dotcom bubble, sure the smaller players were allowed to fail, but that just meant more room for the larger players like google and amazon to take over and now they’re definitely too big to fail. With AI, we already have a small handful of huge players and they’ve convinced the government that this is a matter of national security.
On top of that, people’s retirements are more tied to the stupid stock market than ever before, so the government will use that as an excuse to bail out these companies, hence the rush to IPO and enter indexes.
Ok, point by point: First, government corruption isn’t a function of capitalism. Officials in every system find ways to sell favors. I personally knew Russians who bribed their way out of the USSR, which was almost laughably corrupt. Secondly, the AI industry can’t “position” its own value - it is what it is, and as an industry it simply isn’t “too big to fail.” Thirdly, Google (founded in 1998) was still a startup during the dotcom bubble, not a “large player”. We have no “huge players” in AI yet - as I mentioned, the biggest AI company only has 8000 employees.
Based on all this I assume the prediction that the government will use retirement account stock market exposure as an excuse to bail out AI companies is something you heard or read - if you gave a link to that I’d be happy to look at the reasoning.
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Probably the least controversial take on the threadiverse but i stumpled upon Ed Zitrons Blog like maybe two years ago. I’ve read a few posts of him since then and i just watch the shitshow unfold tbh. Its not that i 100% believe in his predictions. But he has made his point. I’m just an average fuck. I dont know shit. But it was so far the most believable and backed up assessment of the current AI situation.
I make barely enough money to afford my rent in bumfuck europe. How the fuck am i more informed about AI then some CEO? WTF.
It’s not that you’re more informed. It’s simply that you have to worry about consequences of mismanaging money where a CEO… well, hasn’t.
Even the street corner hustler knows you give the first rock out for free.
Really? Has anyone mentioned that to Tesla? Or to whoever is in the government that keeps giving him billion dollar contracts?
Oh you mean the Tesla with a PE Ratio of 382 (20 times the industry average), a PEG of 16, P/B to 18, massive insider stock dumps, and is still down YTD? Tesla still has power because of their stranglehold on charging. AI companies have insane costs and people souring on them as they either lose their jobs or see their companies’ costs go up as a result, all without solid ROIs and strong buyers remorse.
And Trump/Hegseth keep giving them contracts because they’re idiots
still down YTD
TSLA was at $297 this time last year and it’s trading at $403 today. I’ll spot you that it’s off the $485 peak. But it’s been on an absolute tear for the last six years.
And Trump/Hegseth keep giving them contracts because they’re idiots
Government contracts are the lifeblood of every big corporation. Half the reason why business execs at Fortune 100 firms are so slavishly loyal to whomever happens to be running the country at any given moment.
I don’t think Trump/Hegseth are morons for giving Musk access to the unlimited money pump, given how much of Musk’s money keeps overflowing into their own pockets. I think Biden and Obama were rubs for pumping up Silicon Valley stock over the last 18 years, fully ignoring how often they were getting in bed with outspoken fascists.
More broadly speaking, I think Hegseth has set the Pentagon up for failure over the next decade in the same way Rumsfeld did under Bush. But I also don’t consider that a bad thing, broadly speaking. Just a shame that we’re going to piss away trillions in blood, sweat, and tears at home so the US can finally get its nose busted properly in the Middle East.
The only thing more guaranteed than a Tech Sector crash is the multi-trillion dollar government bailout.
Might as well walk in the door with a $1.5T valuation, because that’s what the Feds are going to use to justify cutting you a check in another five years.
Agree with the sentiment. It’s not like we are not in a bubble, but the old fashioned business and growth of the 20th century is gone. With technology things scale incredibly so winning the market share can put you on top for decades, and not just with finances. At this point the power and control of information means everything
I’m excited to see the PE Ratios after these IPOs. We’re already well into dot.com absurdity, but throw in some multi-trillion market caps with negative earnings?
Come on now, Nvidia is making money. Nvidia then just gives it back to them to make more money is all.
Yeah, Nvidia invests in Open AI, Open AI uses that money to buy Nvidia chips. More people invest in Nvidia because it’s revenue keeps growing.
Charles Ponzi would be proud.
Alan and Beth, two economists are walking through some woods. They come across s pile of shit and Alan says to Beth “if you eat that shot I’ll give you a tenner”
“Okay,” says Beth. She eats the shit and Alan hands her a £10 note
They walk on for a bit and find another pile of shit. Beth says to Alan “now I’ll give you a tenner of you eat that pile of shit”
“Okay,” says Alan. He eats the shit and Beth hands the £10 note back to him
They walk on a bit further and Beth says “you know, it seems to me like we both just ate a pile of shit and nobody gained anything”
“Ah, that’s where you’re wrong,” says Alan “we’ve increased the GDP by £20”
Isn’t this just the broken window fallacy but with a poop fetish?
Not quite. The point of the broken window fallacy is that had the money not been spent on the window, it would have been spent on something else. So breaking a window does generate revenue, but not necessarily more than not breaking a window
Whatever happens, the shopkeeper is in a worse position than he otherwise was
Here the point is that they’re passing the money back and forth. That’s like the AI companies right now - passing money round in a circle and that being presented as if it were the same thing as the industry as a whole making money
NVidia gives money to OpenAI, who give it to another company to build datacentres, who give it back to NVidia and NVidia’s Number Goes Up
But wouldn’t that be velocity of money, not GDP? GDP is a measure of final goods and services, not money. Unless you have a poop fetish and consider the eating of poop to be a final service, then this wouldn’t impact GDP.
Here the point is that they’re passing the money back and forth. That’s like the AI companies right now - passing money round in a circle and that being presented as if it were the same thing as the industry as a whole making money
The stock market value isn’t the same thing as GDP though. The GDP measurement is never really a great measurement of economic well being because of inequality, but even then, we really don’t know what it is in the US because Trump fires anyone that gives out a bad report.
The people handing money back and forth quickly was actually what happened when the pandemic ended, the increase in the velocity of money resulted in inflation but people blamed it on Biden. Now Trump is President, the economists have been fired and fraud has been decriminalized.
Wasn’t his full name Charles Ponzi-Scheme?
wow these guys seem to hate it all of a sudden, what changed…
They road the wave up, now they are wanting to exit before it crashes
I would include SpaceX in that category too.
Based on what? Spotify took what, 16 years to turn a profit?
Money stopped working like you expect it to a long time ago.
