when discussing when China could catch up to the US in the semiconductor race.
BS. Untied states are not competitive at all for a long time. They should say China is catching up with Taiwan.
And it’s not a race, there’s no finish line, improvements have been happening for 50 years now and can continue for decades.
Okay but Japan had a major breakthrough the other day that made this technique obsolete for the majority of components.
I mean if every headline about massive breakthroughs was the full truth all our appliances would be powered by tiny nuclear power plants and we would fly around with our jetpack. Cancer would be but a distant memory and world hunger a non issue because vertical farms would be literally in every home.
Average East-Asian news cycle:
China: “We are preventing the export of rare earth minerals to strengthen our country.”
US: “We are imposing tariffs to strengthen our economy.”
Japan: “22-year-old undergraduate turns a leaf into a battery.”
so, no jetpacks?
I mean if every headline about massive breakthroughs was the full truth all our appliances would be powered by tiny nuclear power plants and we would fly around with our jetpack. Cancer would be but a distant memory and world hunger a non issue because vertical farms would be literally in every home.
I’m from the school of “capitalism stops progress when there’s not profit to be made”.
So all these things could have come true if someone didn’t stop them because they were going to lose money.
Cut off a nation as big and determined as China and they will just become more self sufficient.
Given how the US has become more and more isolated as it turns hostile towards immigrants and what is called the Global South, of course the Mainland Chinese will befriend and establish trading deals with any country alienated by Trump. Like, for example, Taliban Afghanistan’s mineral deposits.
Nations can’t be determined.
Anyway. Yes, but there’s nuance, China is not heaven on earth.
This seems about right. Progress was originally supposed to be 5-10 years. I’m not too sure on how effective these prototypes are. My guess is that their progress of EUV sources is quite far now, but that they’ll still need to have greater progress in regards to domestically created collector & debris mitigation systems, projection optics, mask blanks and other things.
Edit Addendum: Note, article agrees with the timeline of 5 years behind for China. Since their EUV source(presumably) works differently from ASML’s LPP EUV(many think China is going LDP route for EUV source), research may still go up to 10 years, as they will likely need to account for this when researching the other components in a full scanner. Alot of significant modifications or straight up new shit will have to be made. And even then, it’ll need to be commerically viable to compete with the West.
And even then, it’ll need to be commerically viable to compete with the West.
Well, unless they invaded Taiwan…
If Taiwan gets invaded they’ll just blow their chip fabs, they’ve said as much multiple times and presumably have a plan in place to do it at a moment’s notice. If that’s what China is after I don’t know that an invasion is going to work even if they succeed. It could deny future chip production to other countries though.
Yeah, that’s what I mean
Doesn’t matter if China’s chips are economically viable if they’re the only ones making advanced chips…
I mean, it kinda still does, but even if they did eventually invade, it wouldn’t necessarily make China the only game in town. There are already other fabrication plants going up around the globe, an invasion would definitely accelerate their development.
China seems to be closest though, if they reach viable modern CPUs first…
But realistically, I think China made a deal with the West to hold off on Taiwan until we have at least one modern chip fab working in the US and Europe
I tend to agree, but leadership has been super questionable as of late
Yeah, but that would be like launching a nuke. The whole world is dependent on TSMC for like… All of modern life
All they have to do is to make it good enough and cheap enough to commodotize the product which will flood the market and push the most advanced but expensive tech to the side.
Meanwhile ASML just stops doing R&D and give up on its extremely specialized supply chain. /s
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“China has reportedly built” Ok I’m gonna stop you right there. China reports it’s built a lot of stuff. It almost never actually builds anything.
Long time ago that was true.
Still doesnt mean that they built this well enough yet, but they are building alot of things that actually works right now.
Delusional, pure cope
