Honestly, no. There is no fast way to spin up fabs for this stuff. A lot of lithography equipment for the top tier stuff is made by 1 supplier, stocking a shitload of fabs with the right gear just isn’t something they can do.
IMHO, the fastest way out of this mess would be for governments to regulate how supply is spilt between consumer and enterprise products.
That still might take 10y because lithography printers aren’t cheap, their location isn’t cheap, and so much more. Once you watch an Intel, TSMC, or Texas Instru… chip factory tour.
Wait, why doesn’t Texas Instrument cash in or did they offshore their production too?
Honestly, we should probably just have a state owned and ran chip fab company. If the US is serious about security and/or innovation, that’s what needs to happen. There’s no way it’s going to happen though sadly, but that’s what should be done. >
Why state owned, when they can have privately owned and just funnel your tax money right into it, then retire to take up cushy “consultancy” positions on the board?
The “demand” is in the future. It may never be realized. There’s no money in starting a chip fab when there’s only a manufactured shortage. The chip companies aren’t adding capacity because they don’t need it.
Eh … even with the popping of the AI bubble, the long-term future is bright for any new chip manufacturer. The world is only becoming more and more electronic, with more and more gadgets needing advanced chips. When the AI bubble goes boom, demand may temporarily drop, but in the long term demand will rise overall.
The startup cost for a chip fab is MONSTROUS. Add the fact that the incumbents have already been convicted of being a cartel once (or more?), and it’s going to be a heck of an industry to break into. The incumbents just will drop price
It is an extremely long and complicated process to do so. China has been trying to enter chips manufacturing for decades and are now almost there (they don’t have the capacity to produce the most advanced chips yet, but are still working on it).
However the moment they got a decent DDR4 production going they announced they are going to “phase them out” in favour of DDR5 chips (of which they have not really perfected the process yet) so they can be used for Chinese AI-datacenters.
They could start manufacturing ram? Or fund startups trying to make ram?
Seriously is there no way to get out of having only 2-3 chip and memory makers?
Honestly, no. There is no fast way to spin up fabs for this stuff. A lot of lithography equipment for the top tier stuff is made by 1 supplier, stocking a shitload of fabs with the right gear just isn’t something they can do.
IMHO, the fastest way out of this mess would be for governments to regulate how supply is spilt between consumer and enterprise products.
So maybe invest in that and become another top-tier supplier of lithography equipment?
That still might take 10y because lithography printers aren’t cheap, their location isn’t cheap, and so much more. Once you watch an Intel, TSMC, or Texas Instru… chip factory tour.
Wait, why doesn’t Texas Instrument cash in or did they offshore their production too?
Fun fact…the chip maker and the calculator company are completely seperate. Don’t really know why it’s fun but well it is a fact.
They’re already selling silicone designed twenty years ago at absurd markup, so Texas Instruments has no need to jeopardize that with the AI fad.
Honestly, we should probably just have a state owned and ran chip fab company. If the US is serious about security and/or innovation, that’s what needs to happen. There’s no way it’s going to happen though sadly, but that’s what should be done. >
Why state owned, when they can have privately owned and just funnel your tax money right into it, then retire to take up cushy “consultancy” positions on the board?
The “demand” is in the future. It may never be realized. There’s no money in starting a chip fab when there’s only a manufactured shortage. The chip companies aren’t adding capacity because they don’t need it.
Eh … even with the popping of the AI bubble, the long-term future is bright for any new chip manufacturer. The world is only becoming more and more electronic, with more and more gadgets needing advanced chips. When the AI bubble goes boom, demand may temporarily drop, but in the long term demand will rise overall.
The startup cost for a chip fab is MONSTROUS. Add the fact that the incumbents have already been convicted of being a cartel once (or more?), and it’s going to be a heck of an industry to break into. The incumbents just will drop price
The problem is it doesn’t solve the core issue. What’s to stop an AI data center buying up all the startup’s stock and future stock also.
It is an extremely long and complicated process to do so. China has been trying to enter chips manufacturing for decades and are now almost there (they don’t have the capacity to produce the most advanced chips yet, but are still working on it).
However the moment they got a decent DDR4 production going they announced they are going to “phase them out” in favour of DDR5 chips (of which they have not really perfected the process yet) so they can be used for Chinese AI-datacenters.