Nah, the bubble will have popped by then. Honestly, most people will probably be using fewer resources because the post bubble recession could be severe.
When people finally realize that AI, robots, big space rockets, and self driving cars are not feasible and/or not enough to sustain our infinite growth economy, it’s going to be kinda like realizing you forgot your parachute just after you jumped out of the plane.
Remember how long Facebook worked on the Metaverse? And even changed their name to Meta because Zuckerberg was convinced he was on to something. Now many years and billions upon billions of dollars later the project is finally shelved as a total failure.
Also remember Tesla/Musk has kept promising true FSD next year for a decade, and they are barely closer today than they were a decade ago. Yet they keep investing loads of money on it, and promising that very soon now, it will be available for all Tesla cars.
Remember when Microsoft launched the Xbox, and stated they were ready to lose billions on it for 10 years if they had to. That one succeeded, but later when they tried the same with Smartphones and bought Nokia they didn’t.
You are clearly underestimating how many billions the trillion dollar companies are ready to lose on this. in the pursuit of coming out on top. That’s how it is with AI too, the companies that spend the most on AI are companies that have loads and loads of money. And they can easily continue this shit for a decade without running out of money, and they will because they are determined and can afford it.
The bubble may burst, but it will probably mostly affect all the small players, and maybe dent the stock prices of the big players a little. But don’t count on it to be over in just a couple of years.
Hopefully it will, but my guess is it won’t. My guess is that none of the biggest players will relent for at least 5 years. But when the bubble burst, it could be even bigger than when the .com bubble did.
We live in interesting times.
he came out with those SPY glasses.
2 completely different things from a market perspective, and something Google already did years earlier.
Small and Free Local LLMs getting better may also drive the popping of the bubble. In fact some people use the Commercial Frontier AI Models for the simplest thing, and if there’s one thing I learned AI uses the same resources for the simplest and hardest questions.
the first sign of the bubble popping is when all these tech conference stopped peddling AI, or they disappear from the regions where the AI startup conventions go to. im in the west coast, and AI conventions are here weekly, if not more than once a week, its solely AI, rather than other tech.
It’s the race to the nuclear bomb again, only this time both sides play for real and both sides know the other side is playing.
Whoever wins will dominate the world. Stopping is no option.
but the Nuke had tangible “Benefits” while AI is just all vapor.
AI is already a better search engine for code. The programming skills will become so good that it can create minimal viable products. All the ideas that have been abandoned for lack of funding, they will be realized.
It will become good enough for autonomous killer drones.
Unlike nuclear bombs, the drones will be deployed.
AI has vastly more use for more people than nuclear weapons.
Yeah, but think about the benefits! Tons of people will become unemployed, and the environment will get ruined…
That’s funny because before AI that’s just about the number of people who were to become water insecure by 2030 due to the melting of land ice cause by global warming.
Ah ha, but it’s all worth it tho! Am I right?
Am I right…?
…
🙁
Closed loop or daily use?
Annually.
Don’t worry they will use vaccines to cut the population by 1.3 billion. Just watch bill gates speeches. He states his goals upfront.
There’s not enough money for AI to actually get that big. Don’t misunderstand me, I know they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars / trillions on blowing this up on the stock market and doing phyiscal hardware installs and building big ass data centers and power generation plants, but nobody can afford to pay them. There’s no cost savings, only a transfer of income from individual workers to companies that basically don’t sell a product, they rent it out.
It’s not a problem. Those people won’t have a job by 2030. They won’t have money to buy water. Might as well let AI use it.
I’ll read the paper later, currently I just read the press release and I’m a bit baffled at these numbers.
I wonder how they came up with them.
If we could only stop the flow, we might stop the problem.
I doubt this. Technology is continually improving. Computers get faster and run cooler every day. HVAC systems continue to improve efficiency as well. By 2030 who knows if AI as we currently know it will still be around. Maybe we will have switched to light-based circuitry by then as well.
I am waiting for the LLMs to downsize actually. Some people use the hundred billion parameter models for something they could do with that, 14B? Especially the roleplay types
They’re talking 10 gigawatt data centers now. That’s multiple small countries worth of power consumption and consequently heat generation. I live in a country of a million point something people and our peak is 1.6 gigawatts. For the entire country. Including multiple non-AI data centers.
You can improve the HVAC efficiency but fundamentally you still have gigawatts of heat generation to dissipate. You know what’s really good for that? Evaporating water, especially in a desert where humidity is low.
