All generative AI queries could hit 329 billion per day by 2030. See the big picture on AI’s energy use, and how it’s reshaping our world.
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Wait, mobile gas turbines?
What a hack. No permits. And lying about it through gritted teeth.
And they are branded “Solar Turbines”? WTF?
AI bubble will pop by 2030. (I fucking hope.)
Sooner.
None of these AI applications are making money and unlike earlier IT companies (Amazon, Google search, social media site, etc ), the marginal cost of each additional user isn’t near zero.
They are having to invest hundreds of billions to cope with demand for applications which lose money on each use.
It’s a $50 billion dollar industry priced as a trillion dollar industry.
I’m with you. I think the markets are going to be demanding results very soon now. When they do…Nvidia, Meta, Google, X, Microsoft stock prices are all going to go into free-fall.
And there‘s still no compelling use-case for the average consumer. Coders and scientists? Can be. But most people don‘t really have a use for it in most situations, even in business contexts. It‘s mostly a solution in search of a problem, and even then it‘s so unreliable that even things trying to sell you it as a solution have to add the disclaimer that you shouldn‘t use it for anything that‘s remotely important.
So even if the costs were markedly less than they are, there‘s still no real path to profitability because there‘s no real call for it.
The only use I‘ve found as a consumer is using something like Perplexity as a search engine. And that‘s not a testament to how good Perplexity is, but instead a testament to how bad other search engines have become. Perplexity just avoids things like SEO and is mostly quite good at finding sources which aren‘t themselves AI-generated.
And…I really see a near future in which AI-SEO becomes a thing and Perplexity et. al. become just as useless as google.
And the training beforehand, distributed over models lifetime users?
“Could hit 329bn queries a day by 2030” - my guess is it probably won’t, because the bubble will burst before it and most AI companies will crash hard
If it’s more than a picowatt-hour, it’s too much.
LLM delenda est.