If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.
I think that might actually send the US into a debt spiral that would require leaning into printing and inflation. Net interest for FY25 is $933 Billion putting servicing debt as the third largest federal expenditure. Any bailout will either be insignificantly small or will tank the dollar.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
So we can pretty much bank on it definitely happening, got it.
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.
Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit
As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.
But I also still say Facebook and Google instead of Meta and alphabet
Its not a question of “if” but “when.”
And when it pops it will be a big bang in the entire global economy from what i heared and read.
I mean, the housing bubble burst and the government pulled 7 trillion out of its arse and handed it back to bankers, doubling the cost of current living from the knock-on inflation. Life went on, and not a single banker (except maybe some lackey in Iceland) was punished. The Rich got exceedingly wealthy after the crisis.
This time: the government will pull 50 trillion from its arse and hand it back to investors. Life will go on, no one will be punished, the cost of living will be a few times higher than what it is now, and the rich will get richer.
My interpretation: the big investors fully expect the bubble to burst and hope to win from the fallout/bailout. It’s win-win for them.
True Edit: which government are you talking about with “the government”?
Any. If it happened under Obama, it will most certainly happen under Trump
Thats quite the US centered perspective
I’m from the UK/Germany. The dollar is a worldwide currency with far reaching impact
Germany had the same financial crisis around that time with a 70 Mrd € bailout as I’m sure you remember
Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%
Maybe the needle really is shifting.
Maybe, but he’s also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn’t smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.
Because it’s more likely that he got lucky once and his short position was strong enough that he could keep paying the premiums than it is that he is some super genius who knew something noone else knew
since his bet on the housing market he effectively lost money. all the public things he made can also be safety investments in case his secret hedgefund stuff he doesn’t have to disclose fails.
- this is what an ex-financebro told me yesterday
i LOVE LOVE LOVE the thought of the AI Bubble popping… but i don’t think this MF is the guy to trust
Yeah, my heart sank a little when I saw burry shorted, it was about the same time I opened a small short position. I am so screwed…
You sure about that?
What does his height have to do with anything? Are we body shaming?
This is in a category I’d like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they’ll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.
In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.
One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.
Seriously the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
People are idiots.
Is there a consensus there’s an AI bubble? Sure?
Can anyone predict what will happen? LOfuckingL
Yay, yet another once in a lifetime financial crisis.
Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.
There’s an AI bubble?
I was pretty certain it was grifts all the way down lol
This is the most accurate take I have yet seen.
I’m thankfully OoL enough but I guarantee there are some AI backed crypto out there which is so deliciously awesome given the double down on smoke and mirrors.
I think it’s all the way up in this case
If he needs a straight pin to pop it I can send him a couple
My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I’m going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon’s numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.
I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it’s just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I’d rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.
*not a FA, just my personal plan
I think it’s a bubble but I’m also suspicious we’re near peak investment and think it could sustain for a while yet. I wonder what sort of range he’s projecting for the peak and timeframe
I don’t follow the AI bubble trend at all. But I have been seeing alot of videos all of a sudden, popping up in my recommended talking about it. Who knows.
I just saw a TV commercial for a special series the local news is doing on traffic issues, and they used several quick background graphics, and at least one quick film clip that were obviously AI-generated.
You can argue over the appropriateness of AI, but most people would agree that it doesn’t belong anywhere near a news broadcast. If you don’t have footage, it is highly unethical to create footage to juice up your news reports.
It’s only pervasive because the AI companies are losing money on every generated token while burning investor money to keep the lights on. If people had to pay for what it really costs they’d be using it a lot less.
I think you responded to the wrong comment.
I don’t follow the AI bubble trend at all
I was responding to you finally noticing how pervasive it is getting.
I don’t follow the AI bubble trend at all. But I have been seeing alot of videos all of a sudden, popping up in my recommended talking about it. Who knows.
A few banks started issuing warnings, and some of the “biggest upcoming launches” were extremely underwhelming, like Sora 2 and GPT 5. Not only that, but the companies going all in on replacing workers with AI are still not showing a clear return on investment, so this combination is making people more aware about the bubble.
I don’t follow the AI bubble trend at all
It was relevant to your noticing how prevalent it is getting.
Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.
Whats the alternative?
I am just a plebe and have very little financial experience. No idea.
